Photographs: Reuters Bhaskar Roy
Although the India-China border is yet to be demarcated and the Line of Actual Control is to be defined clearly, both sides have a very good idea where the perceived LAC lies. This should prevent serious incursions into Indian-controlled territory.
But the problem is that Chinese incursions have been rather aggressive in recent times.
The incursions are happening in the western sector of the Sino-Indian border -- in Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand -- and appear to be aimed at extending Chinese territorial claims.
Sporadic incursions in the western sector, the middle sector and the eastern sector have been going on for years, even as the Indian government periodically protests.
(The writer is a New Delhi based strategic analyst)
Change in Chinese tactics
Photographs: Sergei Karpukhin/Reuters
Reports in a section of the Indian media that Chinese troops fired on and injured two Indo-Tibetan Border Police soldiers appear uncorroborated and have been denied by both countries. The free Indian media, therefore, has to be more responsible.
A long held Chinese position, aired mainly through their official media and think tank experts, has been that "If India makes concessions in the western sector, China would consider making concessions in the eastern sector."This, naturally, has never been elaborated. The exchange maps of the two sectors between the two sides remains pending, preventing clarification on where the LAC actually starts and ends.
Why western sector matters to Beijing
Photographs: Rupak De Chowdhuri/Reuters
In an agreement in 1963, Pakistan ceded over 5000 square kilometers of PoK territory to China in violation to Indian claims.
Aksai Chin also provides surface transport access to China through Tibet to Xinjiang, currently in the news for the Uighurs Muslim protest against Chinese occupation. This road is important from the point of facilitating movement of Chinese troops into Xinjiang and to the country's borders with Central Asia.
There are two other very important reasons for China to seek to expand its territory in the western sector. One is to use the Karakoram Highway as an artery to cut short its access to the Persian Gulf through Pakistan.China has already built a deep seaport at Gwadar in Pakistan and the Karakoram Highway is connected to it. It also plans to construct twin oil and gas pipelines from Gwadar to Western China. This is a great challenge and once achieved, will be an engineering feat similar to the building of the railway across hostile terrain in the Tibetan Plateau.
The Sikkim issue is a pressure tactic
Photographs: Ahmad Masood/Reuters
There are two other objectives of strategic importance -- One is to push the Chinese border as far as possible into India and second is to bring the Chinese army as close to the Indian land route as possible, making Ladakh vulnerable by cutting its south eastern side from the rest of India. It is something like what Pakistan tried to do in Kargil in 1999 -- cutting off the land route to Kashmir.
China has started incursions along the border with Sikkim. The "Finger Point" area where Chinese troops are probing is of military importance to both sides, though it is within the borders of Sikkim and Tibet.
Although the Chinese have made a pretence of accepting Sikkim as part of Indian territory during Prime Minister Vajpayee's visit to China in 2003, they never actually did. Prime Minister Vajpayee and the Indian government fell for the trick that if India fully recognised Tibet as a part of China, the latter would accord recognition to India's sovereignty over Sikkim.
India did sign on the Tibet issue, but China did not honour its end of the bargain on Sikkim. China gave an impression that there was no border dispute insofar as Sikkim is concerned. The Sikkim issue is a pressure tactic and has the potential of becoming a burning issue further. To open new pockets of contention is a dangerous move by Beijing.
Chinese are reneging on the 2005 agreement with India
Photographs: Rupak De Chowdhuri/Reuters
This is what Beijing exactly did when trying to block an Asian Development Bank (ADB) loan to India for development work in Arunachal Pradesh.
New Delhi has made it abundantly clear that Arunachal Pradesh is Indian Territory and non-negotiable. Small adjustments, however, can be made along the border without disturbing the settled population.
The 2005 India-China agreement on modalities to resolve the boundary issue has a clause that settled populations would not be disturbed. Although the agreement was jointly formulated, the Chinese are reneging on the clause.
Why occupation of Tawang matters to China
Photographs: Utpal Baruah/Reuters
The Chinese target is to get Tawang, which it sees as being of great strategic importance.
One Chinese argument is that since the sixth Dalai Lama was born in Tawang and is dear to the sentiments of the Tibetans, Tawang must be incorporated in Tibet. This is a specious argument. Throughout history, the holy man has moved elsewhere from their birthplace and settled.
Tawang is situated at the tri-junction of India, Bhutan and Tibet. The occupation of Tawang by the Chinese will bring their forces not only on Bhutan's eastern border, but on the shoulders of a strip of land known as Chicken Neck in Siliguri, which joins north-east India to the rest of the country.
In a time of war, this strip of land could be cut-off by Chinese troops in no time especially since the vulnerable corridor is downhill.
Chinese have been quick to grab Indians' weakness
Photographs: Andrew Wong/Reuters
Overall, China seems to be pursuing a line to push and create an overwhelming military fortified border with India.
It plans to extend the Tibet railway to the Indian border in the Eastern sector, at Xigatse, which will greatly help troop mobilization.
One can imagine the Indo-Himalayan belt being pushed southward, according to Beijing 'forward defence' doctrine.
While China has been fortifying its borders with India, the same cannot be said of India.
The Indian side has built hardly any permanent structure. In some areas, Indian patrols do not go even up to the area of Indian claims, in some parts they go unarmed, and at some other portions there are only civilian patrols.
This reportedly is a government decision not to provoke the Chinese. The Indians have shown a weakness, which the Chinese have been quick to grab.
Military preparedness cannot be left to chance
Despite India's vacillations over the fortifying of its borders, the situation is not similar to what prevailed in 1962. Unlike in 1962, the Indian Air Force will now also join the action if Chinese troops move into Indian Territory.
The Chinese Air Force is not yet ready for a combat along the borders, though there are reports that they are moving medium or intermediate range missiles into Tibet.
Having said that, nothing in military preparedness can be left to chance. If Indian strategists think that the 60 billion dollars bilateral trade with China is an insurance against a Chinese surge along the borders, they are mistaken.
The Chinese are preparing to fight what they call "local wars" which may not lead to snapping of diplomatic relations. Military preparedness for India is the only insurance against a Chinese attack.