Monsoon likely to reach Kerala on May 30: Skymet

May 13, 2021 13:51

Weather forecasting company Skymet has released its monsoon forecast for 2021.

It expects the upcoming monsoon to be 'healthy normal' to the tune of 103 per cent (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 880.6 mm for the four-month period from June to September.

This would make it third consecutive year of normal or above normal monsoon.

Skymet predicts this year the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is likely to be on May 30.

Onset of Southwest Monsoon over Kerala is largely influenced by the oceanic conditions, both in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.

Likely cyclone formation in the Arabian Sea will be consequential for advance of monsoon stream over Indian waters.

However, tropical storm 'Tauktae' will vacate the Indian region by May 22, 2021 following which the westerly winds and cross equatorial flow will strengthen over Arabian Sea, it says.

This also will be assisted by the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) entering Indian Ocean with moderate amplitude. Pre-monsoon showers will be intense and hefty over Kerala, Skymet says.

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