Global banking recovery will take 3 years: S&P

September 24, 2020 11:14

Covid-19 and the oil price shock of 2020 are taking a heavy toll on global banks, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday adding that it will be difficult for them to return to pre-crisis levels in the next three years. To estimate the shape of recovery for banks, S&P analysed 20 of the largest banking systems globally in its report.

"We do not expect the world's largest banking sectors, including more than half of G20's, to recover to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2023 or beyond," it said.

S&P Global Ratings has taken 335 negative rating actions globally since the outbreak began.

"The hit on financial institutions globally has been unambiguously negative," said Credit Analyst Gavin Gunning.

"We have already negatively revised the economic or industry trends underpinning the financial strength of many banking jurisdictions globally. This trend should persist," he said.

"Further, we have seen negative rating momentum affecting financial institutions in most major banking jurisdictions, indicating that downside risks are to the fore," added Gunning.

Even for less-affected banking jurisdictions, recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels will unlikely come before end-2022. These jurisdictions include China, Canada, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea and Saudi Arabia.

Even for those jurisdictions that have been more resilient, S&P's outlook for banking sector credit metrics as well as metrics applicable to individual banks are uniformly weaker. -- ANI

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