India's GDP to contract by 5.3% in FY21

June 24, 2020 13:44

India's economy is likely to shrink by 5.3 per cent this fiscal, the lowest GDP growth in the Indian history and the sixth instance of economic contraction, India Ratings and Research said on Wednesday.

"The disorder caused by the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded with such a speed and scale that the disruption in production, breakdown of supply chains/trade channels and total wash out of activities in aviation (some activities have started now), tourism, hotels and hospitality sectors will not allow the economic activity to return to normalcy throughout FY21," the rating agency said in a report.

As a result, besides contracting for the whole year, GDP will contract in each quarter in FY21 (April 2020 to March 2021). However, the agency believes the GDP growth would bounce back in the range of 5-6 per cent in FY22 (April 2021 to March 2022), aided by base effect and return of gradual normalcy in the domestic as well as global economy. India Ratings (Ind-Ra) said India's gross domestic product (GDP) will contract 5.3 per cent in FY21.

This will be the lowest GDP growth in the Indian history (Indian GDP data is available from FY51) and sixth instance of economic contraction, others being in FY58, FY66, FY67, FY73 and FY80; the previous low was negative 5.2 per cent in FY80," it said.

The government had announced an economic package of Rs 20.97 lakh crore (10 per cent of GDP) on May 12, 2020 to mitigate the adverse impact of COVID-19 and related lockdown. However, Ind-Ra's calculations, excluding the monetary measures and existing proposals in the union budget, show that the direct fiscal impact is only Rs 2.145 lakh crore (1.1 per cent of GDP).

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