Why were the US election polls so wrong?

November 09, 2016 23:57

Republican Donald Trump will become the next US president. Many will be wondering who, among the estimated 129 million voters in the 2016 election, Trump has to thank for his victory.

Possibly, not most of them. Current projections suggest that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton might narrowly claim a larger share of the popular vote. But the distribution of votes in the electoral college still means that Trump finished the night with 276 of the 270 college votes needed to win and, once final counts come in from states that still havent officially been called, that count will probably jump to 306.

Those exit polls point to one clear, deep divide in voting behavior race. White voters chose Trump, non-white voters chose Clinton. This appears to be different from previous polling data, where the difference between candidates national popularity was so narrow that relatively small errors could affect the overall accuracy of results. The gap in Trump support between white voters and non-white voters is so large that even if exit polls were inaccurate, that difference probably still stands.

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