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Saddam may use chemical weapons if US attacks Iraq

A top secret document signed by the head of the Iraqi navy has US experts worried that Iraq President Saddam Hussein has ready-to-use chemical weapons and will deploy them without hesitation in the event of war.

The 23-page document in the shape of a military order was issued to the heads of the Iraqi armed forces some months ago and describes how in the event of the regime facing defeat in a war local commanders are free to use their own initiative in deploying chemical weapons

Although the document does not refer to specific chemical weapons in Iraq's arsenal, it mentions 'preparations' that must be made for a forthcoming 'chemical battle' between Iraqi and American forces and also the Iranians. If the document is authenticated it will strengthen President George W Bush's case that Saddam is a liar who cannot be trusted.

On Thursday Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri told the United Nations General Assembly, "I hereby declare before you that Iraq is clear of all nuclear, chemical and biological weapons." US and British experts have described his speech as "propaganda."

It is the talk of 'preparations' and the use of the word 'battle' in the intercepted document rather than 'attack' that has alerted US experts to the possibility that Saddam is readying his chemical weapons for deployment.

Details of the intercept acquired by Iraqi Opposition leaders were passed on to US Vice-President Dick Cheney during an extended exchange with him via a White House video link to his ranch early last month.

Senior US officials, who confirmed the existence of the document to rediff.com, are intrigued by what it reveals of Saddam's military contingency planning. It spells out the five military zones into which Iraq is divided and the circumstances under which zone commanders will be free to use their initiative to prepare for a chemical battle.

"The document is talking of a chemical battle and then it says 'we have to be ready for chemical pollution, we have to be ready for a chemical battle' and 'you should do this or that,' " says Dr Hamid Bayati, London representative of the Iranian-backed Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq.

Dr Bayati was a member of the three man team headed by Abdul Aziz Hakim that visited the White House last month and briefed Cheney over the video link before handing the document over to one of his aides.

The team was part of a larger Iraqi Opposition delegation that also included representatives from Dr Ahmed Chalabi's Iraqi National Congress, Ayad Alawi's Iraqi National Accord, the two Kurdish parties, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan led by Jalal Talebani and the Kurdish Democratic Party led by Masoud Barzani. Also present was Sharif Aly, head of the Iraqi Constitutional Monarchists group and a cousin of the last Iraqi king.

Their meeting with senior state and defence department experts and the video linked conversation with Cheney has been confirmed by US sources who also say the information contained in the intercepted document that was handed over is being taken "very seriously."

"This document we handed over was signed the commander of the Iraqi navy," Bayati explained to rediff "It was signed by the commander of the navy and another officer, a lieutenant colonel, who signs his name 'Chemical lieutenant' so and so.

"It says Top Secret, then it says Navy Forces Command Training Department. Then it says it should be distributed to the units on the list. After that it talks of a forthcoming chemical battle and what the radio coded messages should say if chemical weapons are used.

"It is signed by the commander of the Iraqi navy, Staff Lieutenant General Yahiya Taha Huwaish. Below his signature is another signature of Chemical Lieutenant Colonel Qasim Hamoud Slayih, Staff Chemical Officer of the naval forces.

"From our study and analysis that we have given to the Americans, it is the clear intention of the Iraqi leadership to use chemical weapons and then put the blame on the Americans and the Iranians."

The significance of the material handed over to Cheney is the strong implication that Saddam retains a significant stockpile of chemical weapons and is willing to deploy them in the event of war.

Despite the well documented disarming efforts of UN inspectors from I991 until they were expelled in December 1998, Saddam is believed to have secretly hidden his stores of deadly nerve gas, such as sarin and tabun as well as mustard gas.

Production of these three agents, according to Iraqi defectors, was resumed immediately after the expulsion of the inspectors. What is most alarming is the addition of sufficient quantities of another and even more deadly nerve agent, VX, that could wipe out the population of Iraq and the rest of the Middle East.

"Saddam had about 250 tons of precursor chemicals to make VX and refused to hand them over to the UN inspectors," says Dr Hussain Shahristani, a former chief scientific adviser to the Iraqi Atomic Energy Commission.

Dr Shahristani, who now heads the Iraqi Refugee Aid Council in London, adds, "Iraq is now producing most of the chemicals it requires to make its own nerve gases, including VX."

His warning comes in the wake of the latest report on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction prepared by the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies, IISS.

The IISS assessment notes Baghdad may well have activated its civilian facilities to produce fresh chemical warfare agents, adding, 'If so, Iraq's present CW capability probably comprises hundreds of tonnes of agent (presumably a mixture of mustard and nerve agent, most likely sarin and cyclosarin and perhaps VX) and perhaps a few thousand munitions.'

Long before the current crisis Saddam first used mustard gas in 1982 against Iranian soldiers. This was followed in 1984 by the use of sarin and tabun nerve gases, the first time ever in global warfare that these chemical weapons were used on the battlefield.

In March 1988 it was the turn of Saddam's Kurdish civilian population in the small town of Halabja. A cocktail of sarin, tabun and mustard gas was used to annihilate an already terrified civilian population. Some 5,000 civilians, mostly women and children perished in this attack.

For reasons that were not apparent at the time Saddam held back from using chemical weapons against the Allies and the Israelis during the 1991 Gulf war. US troops sent into Iraq during their 100 hour operation certainly came across unutilised chemical munitions.

At Khamisiyah near Nasiriya in March 1991 US troops came face to face with a huge cache of more than 2,000 small, short range sarin and tabun rockets that remained unused throughout the confrontation with the Allied coalition.

The consensus among Middle East experts is that one reason Saddam opted not to use his awesome firepower in 1991 is because he was assured his survival was not at risk.

Since then US policy under President Bush has undergone a sea change and replacing Saddam is now the declared intention of the current administration in Washington. Under these circumstances there are no inhibitions to hold Saddam back from using whatever means of mass destruction he has at his disposal, including chemical, biological and radiological weapons, to stop the advance on Baghdad.

rediff Senior Editor Shyam Bhatia is a co-author of Brighter Than The Baghdad Sun, an investigation into Saddam Hussein's weapons programme.

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