May 8 will be a turning point in Andhra Pradesh politics.
Sources now confirm that Jaganmohan Reddy, son of the late Chief Minister Y S Rajashekhar Reddy, will be contesting the Lok Sabha by-elections from the Kadapa constituency while his mother will fight from the same constituency in the assembly segment.
Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy would watch with baited breath since his future would depend largely on the result of these by-elections.
Ever since Jagan broke away from the Congress due to differences with the party high command, he has aspired to become the chief minister of Andhra Pradesh, a position previously held by his father.
He recently launched his YSR Congress party amid political turmoil in the state.
It sounds surprising that he is contesting the Lok Sabha by-elections, when the assembly seat from Kadapa is lying vacant. However, Jagan has decided to field his mother Y Vijayalakshmi to that seat.
The justification given by Jagan to his followers is that if he contested the assembly seat and won, that would mean he would be entering the Andhra Pradesh legislative assembly.
This would be seen as a move to destablise the government. He says that he has no intention of destablising a government which was brought to power by his father.
However, Jagan has bigger plans on his mind while contesting the Lok Sabha seat on May 8. He realises that it is time for him to build YSR Congress party in a big way and it is very important that he has ample representation in Parliament.
Once in Parliament, Jagan will first enter into talks with United Progressive Alliance partners Nationalist Congress Party, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Trinamool Congress.
Although these parties hail from different states and do not have any presence in Andhra Pradesh, Jagan feels that these parties could support his cause in Parliament.
He has intentions of raising various issues regarding Andhra Pradesh in Parliament and would need strong support from these parties.
Moreover this would also mean that he becomes a stronger force in Parliament when compared to the Telugu Desam Party and also the Telangana Rastriya Samithi.
The by-polls to both the assembly and the Lok Sabha constituencies will have a direct bearing on the fortunes of Kiran Kumar Reddy and the rest of the Congress in the state.
Political observers and supporters of Jagan say that a victory, especially by a thumping margin, will make a huge difference. Jagan has no intention of pulling out MLAs from the Congress at the moment and toppling the government-led by Reddy.
He has asked these MLAs to wait and watch and also play their cards carefully this time around.
Today there are 27 MLAs, two members of the legislative council and two MPs from the Congress who openly support Jagan. While Kiran Reddy knows fully that he will lose these leaders at some point of time, the bigger worry for him are the 30 other invisible Congress members who support Jagan behind closed doors.
The Congress has managed to keep them within the party with the lure of lucrative posts in the corporations and also more funds for their respective constituencies. In addition to this, they are also being warned about disciplinary action if they go to the Jagan camp.
However, the worry is that these 30 MLAs have not yet bitten the bait and are waiting for the result of this by-poll. A victory for Jagan and his mother would give them the confidence to cross over from the Congress, and once this happens the downfall for the Congress in Andhra Pradesh begins.
Jagan has also told these MLAs to remain in the Congress for now and to put in their resignations once they witness the results of these by-polls.
Sources say that what is also very important is the margin by which Jagan wins. If he manages to sweep the by-polls by a record margin, there will be more in the Congress who will cross over since the confidence of these MLAs in Jagan is also expected to rise.
The Jagan camp feels that once he wins these by-polls then the Congress will lose at least 57 of its MLAs. This camp expects panic at such a stage and feels that more will come into their fold.
These MLAs have also been told that they should not cross over blatantly from their party and join Jagan. They would need to resign to their posts first and then immediately face the by-elections, which according to them would be helpful to avoid the anti-defection law.
Image: Jaganmohan Reddy | Photograph: SnapsIndia
