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The powerful role of Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence in Afghan insurgency is 'as clear as the sun in the sky', says a latest study.
The paper titled 'The Sun in the Sky: The relationship between Pakistan's ISI and Afghan insurgents' by Matt Waldman, Fellow at the Carr Centre for Human Rights Policy in John F Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, states that 'Directly or indirectly, the ISI appears to exert significant influence on the strategic decision-making and field operations of the Taliban; and has even greater sway over Haqqani insurgents.'
The paper adds that the Taliban-ISI relationship is founded on mutual benefit. The Taliban need external sanctuary, as well as military and logistical support to sustain their insurgency; the ISI believes that it needs a significant allied force in Afghanistan to maintain regional strength and 'strategic depth' in their rivalry with India.
Waldman, quoting both Taliban and Haqqani commanders, says that the ISI controls the most violent insurgent units, some of which appear to be based in Pakistan.
Waldman claims that 'President Asif Ali Zardari himself has apparently assured captive, senior Taliban leaders that they are 'our people' and have his backing. He has also apparently authorised their release from prison. The ISI even arrested and then released two Taliban leaders, Qayyum Zakir, the movement's new military commander, and Mullah Abdul Raouf Khadem, reportedly new head of the Quetta Shura, who are among the three or four highest ranking in the movement below Mullah Omar.'
'Pakistan's apparent involvement in a double game of this scale could have major geo-political implications and could even provoke US counter-measures. However, the powerful role of the ISI, and parts of the Pakistani military, suggests that progress against the Afghan insurgency, or towards political engagement, requires their support,' he adds
Quoting a former Taliban minister, the researcher says: 'The ISI are helping the Taliban a lot, but they only give for their own gain. There is a reciprocal issue: Kashmir. The root of the problem in Afghanistan is the Pakistan-India competition.'
Senior Pakistani officials also believe the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, scheduled to commence from July 2011, could open up a power struggle from which India could benefit -- a major incentive for Pakistan to maintain, or even strengthen, its Afghan allies.