Top Taliban commander Mullah Baradar's arrest in a joint US-Pakistan operation does not mean that Pakistan is moving against the militants and may be seen as a key strategy of the country aimed at maintaining influence on its "western flank", a US think tank said on Monday.
"Moving against Baradar does not mean the Pakistanis are moving against the Taliban far from it, in fact," Stratfor said in its news analysis of the arrest of the top Taliban leader. "A key strategic imperative of Pakistan is to be able to maintain influence on its western flank, something that is hardwired into the country's geopolitics," it noted. While Pakistan also does not want to overly rely on the Taliban, it can achieve a sphere of influence in Afghanistan only through the Pashtuns, due to cross-border ethnic linkages. With the Taliban being the single most powerful group among the Pashtuns, the Pakistanis do not have any other option but to work with the Taliban, it said. "Thus, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar's arrest, regardless of whether it is a genuine capture of a wanted fugitive or is part of some complex covert negotiation process, shows that Pakistan is trying to regain lost influence over the Afghan Taliban and in the process is catering to US needs as well both of which are necessary elements that will help in serving Islamabads long-term interests in Afghanistan," Stratfor said.
Stratfor said, what is clear is that the move to arrest such a high-ranking Afghan Taliban official is the first major sign of the improvement in US-Pakistani relations regarding Afghanistan. "Washington needs Islamabad to help with intelligence on the Taliban, while Pakistan needs the United States to recognise its role in Afghanistan," it said. Furthermore, the Pakistanis and the Afghan Taliban differ over the issue of talks in terms of timing, it said. The Taliban are in no hurry to come to the table just yet and have an interest in not being too dependent upon Pakistan, and are thus dealing with different channels and even directly dealing with Afghan President Hamid Karzai's government, it noted.
"From the Pakistani point of view, Islamabad needs to dominate the back channels in this process and in keeping with the US timetable. Therefore, it has an interest in pushing the Afghan Taliban toward talking sooner rather than later. Pakistan needs to be able to ensure that it can steer the Afghan Taliban toward a settlement," Stratfor said.
According to Stratfor there is one theory making the rounds in which Baradar's arrest actually is a smoke screen for behind-the-scenes talks between Washington and the Afghan Taliban leadership. Meanwhile, if there is one player that can bring the Afghan Taliban to the table, it is Pakistan, which also has a major interest in being the key player in this process," it said.
