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New Bush aide sees India as top regional power

Afghanistan-born Zalmay Khalilzad, who believes that India could become a premier regional power in Asia because of its advantages over China, has been appointed to a top policy-making position in the White House National Security Council.

President George W Bush's National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice announced the appointment of Khalilzad as special assistant to the President and senior director for the Gulf, south and southwest Asia and other regional issues at the NSC.

Last month, a Rand Corporation study commissioned by the Pentagon, of which Khalilzad was the lead author, said that if India could emulate China's sustained economic dynamism, it would necessarily lay the foundation for an expanded political-military role.

Khalilzad also headed the Bush-Cheney transition team for the defence department. Since the advent of the Bush administration, he has been a counsellor to Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

Pentagon officials have told India Abroad that Khalilzad was among Rumsfeld's top advisers who had recommended that the US develop a strategic relationship with India. Rumsfeld clearly indicated he wanted to do as much when he met External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh, who also holds the defence portfolio, on April 6 and signed several agreements to kick off such a relationship.

Between 1993 and 1999, Khalilzad, who holds a doctorate from the University of Chicago, class of 1979, was director of strategy, doctrine and force structure programme for Rand's Project Air Force.

While at Rand -- considered the Pentagon's think tank -- he founded the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies. Between 1991 and 1992, Khalilzad served as assistant deputy undersecretary of defence for policy planning. He also served as a senior political scientist at Rand and an associate professor at the University of California at San Diego in 1989 and 1991.

From 1985 to 1989, Khalilzad was at the state department, where he served as special adviser to the undersecretary of state for policy. He advised the undersecretary on the erstwhile Soviet Union's war in Afghanistan and US support for Pakistan, to act as a buffer against the perceived Soviet expansionism, and also on the Iran-Iraq war.

From 1979 to 1989, Khalilzad was an assistant professor of political science at Columbia university.

In the recent Rand study, titled 'The United States and Asia: Toward a New US Strategy and Force Posture', Khalilzad and his co-authors said, "Unlike China, India need not be concerned that increasing links to the rest of the world and growing prosperity will place potentially fatal stress on its political system; if anything, such forces could be expected to strengthen India's democracy."

Thus, the study predicted, "if India's economic and technological development can be sustained and accelerated, India should be in a position to claim a larger role for itself in world affairs."

India's wary posture towards China will continue, the study predicted, but said, "Whether this posture will degenerate into outright political-military competition is less clear."

But it believed that "India will most likely continue to develop its nuclear deterrent capability vis-a-vis China -- and while the Chinese will not like this, their options for dealing with it would appear to be limited."

"In any case," the study said, "India's goal will probably be merely to establish a credible deterrent against any Chinese attempt to use nuclear blackmail against India -- a goal that may not in itself threaten any vital Chinese interests."

"Overall, China's reaction to India's ongoing nuclear and ballistic missile development programmes may be muted," it said.

The study predicted that there would emerge a "Sino-Indian rivalry for influence in southeast Asia, with Vietnam leaning towards India, Thailand towards China, and Burma caught in the middle".

It said, "The fact that several members of the Association for South East Asian Nations have claims in the South China Sea that conflict with China's could give India an advantage in this competition, but the predominant goal of the southeast Asian states [with the possible exception of Malaysia] will probably be to balance China and India against each other, to prevent either from obtaining too much influence."

The study projected that "regardless of how the Sino-Indian relationship develops, India appears likely to pursue a more active political-military role in the world".

It said India's May 1998 Pokhran nuclear tests and aggressive campaign to become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council were clear indicators of this desire.

"Another manifestation of this desire may be more diplomacy with other countries in Asia and the Middle East. India's 'look east' policy of closer relations with the nations of southeast Asia has already been noted," it said.

But it also said that it was plausible that India may look farther afield, noting that "for example, India and Japan could see a common interest in balancing Chinese influence in the region and in protecting sea lines of communication from the Middle East".

The study advised that the US nurture a balance-of-power structure involving China, India and Russia to deter them from threatening regional security, dominating one another or coalescing against the US. "Washington should seek strengthened political, economic and military relations with all, but especially those least likely to challenge US strategic interests."

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