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Jaswant Singh breaks the ice

Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh's recent visit to Colombo is the most positive development in the ongoing politico-military crisis in Sri Lanka. Why was Jaswant Singh in Sri Lanka now, not earlier? It is no secret that there has been no high level contact between the two sides ever since the Jaffna flare-up except for the convalescing Lakshman Kadirgamar's premature request on May 3 for Indian military assistance in rescuing the military garrison of Jaffna in the event they are beleaguered. Even at the height of the present crisis, Chandrika Kumaratunga admitted she had not spoken to the Indian prime minister. Instead, both countries have been speaking at and not to each other.

There are several reasons for Singh's sudden weekend dash to Colombo. The most obvious is that Kumaratunga requested for it. But equally, it was high time India came out of its stupor to recognise the utter mess Jaffna is in, which it had hoped would sort itself out -- either with the fall of Jaffna town and/or the whole peninsula or with the Sri Lankan Army holding out at least around the Palaly perimeter to obviate any morale shattering evacuation from Jaffna.

It was hoped that the fall of Jaffna town, which is still a possibility, would have restored the ground situation to the one in 1995 before Kumaratunga launched her failed war-for-peace strategy and captured Jaffna forcing the LTTE into the Wanni jungle. India believes that the 1995 ground situation in Jaffna is more amenable to bringing the LTTE around to the negotiating table. Since that may take some time or even may not happen at all, still worse, the LTTE may lose ground in Jaffna, it is better to cap and freeze the battle lines on an as is where is basis.

For the present, the Sri Lankan government is on the ascendant. It has relaxed censorship of the war zone and has rejected proposals for a cease-fire. The LTTE has let the initiative slip out of its hands. Therefore the human bomber attacks in Colombo and sporadic assaults in Batticaloa and Trincomalee.

The latest fighting is localised to the south east of Jaffna town in the Madduvil, Sarselai and Misalai areas. The SLA is trying to dislodge the LTTE from these positions so that the army brigade at the Killali naval base does not get cut off from Nagarkovil and Palaly. It is surprising why the LTTE has not tried to close the noose around Killali. Or are they concerned that any siege of the SLA could force Indian humanitarian intervention, something they want to avoid at all costs?

Singh's Colombo visit was prompted by other motives: Reiterating India's commitment to Sri Lanka's unity (after the Karunanidhi faux pas on the division of Sri Lanka) helping forge a Sinhalese consensus on a devolution package and exploring how non-LTTE Tamil groups would be accommodated in the political process. He will also discuss the military situation to see how the cyclic crisis that visits Jaffna can be avoided, best of all, by getting at least the SLA and the clergy to give up the military option.

Only two weeks ago, a government official had emphasised the urgency for the Sri Lankan government to present the devolution package but there was no anxiety then about a cease-fire. The threat of an influx of refugees in Tamil Nadu and India's overzealous wait and watch policy being misconstrued as tacit support for Eelam forced Singh's visit to Colombo, Ideally India would have preferred to stay out of Sri Lanka for as long as feasible and piggyback on Norway in brokering a cease-fire and mediation.

But three weeks ago, Kadirgamar had correctly predicted that one way or another, India would get sucked into Sri Lanka. Jaswant Singh has broken the ice. However reluctantly but much to Sri Lanka's relief, he has formally laid the ground for India's involvement in the political process, albeit in a support role. For the LTTE, India has become a necessary evil.

Major General Ashok K Mehta (retd)