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The fight is between BJP and Congress, with RJP being a bystander

Haresh Pandya in Saurashtra

The assembly election in the seven segments forming the Amreli Lok Sabha constituency will witness a keen battle between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress. It does not require a soothsayer to predict that Shankarsinh Vaghela's Rashtriya Janata Party will fare badly as it has little presence in this backward part of Saurashtra.

The Patels, most of them are farmers, will play a key role in the battle for the ballot in six constituencies (the seventh is Savarkundala which falls in the Bhavnagar district from the revenue point of view), because they have already started agitating for adequate power. They were also severely lathi-charged by the police.

They staged a rally last fortnight at the district headquarters. Expectedly it turned violent and the police resorted to a lathi-charge, injuring many. The consequences might prove devastating as far as the Congress-RJP alliance is concerned.

One of the backward regions with little industry and commerce, the mainstay of this rural segment is agriculture and its main requirements are adequate power and water. Successive leaders have failed to take up the two important issues, banking on caste factor for short-term gains. With open support to the farmers, the BJP is all set to make the most of the prevailing situation.

Of the six seats the Congress had won three -- Babra, Dhari, Rajula -- while the BJP bagged the remaining three -- Amreli, Kodinar and Lathi. But when the assembly was dissolved, the BJP was left with only two; Lakshmanbhai Parmar from Kodinar had joined the RJP bandwagon.

The candidature of Virjubhai Thummar, the Congress MLA from Babra who captured the seat with the highest margin last time, faces a revolt from a faction led by Valjibhai Kokari. Kokaria, a former party MLA, had contested as an Independent last time and stood third with only 17,689 votes as against Thummar's 31,932 and Kantilal Sorathia's (BJP) 21,736 votes.

Dhari is likely to witness a tough battle where veteran Congress leader and GPCC vice-president Manubhai Kotadia has fielded his son Sureshbhai Kotadia. Manubhai had won the seat in the last election by securing 25,455 votes as against 17,729 polled by his BJP rival. Independent Jaysukhbhai Jasani could muster only 16,680 votes.

In Rajula, the Congress feels it will be a cakewalk and can retain the seat which Madhubhai Bhuva had won, defeating his BJP rival last time. Bhuva had secured 33,768 votes, while Alingabhai Kotila lost his deposit by polling just 8,610 votes. Independent Babubhai Jalondhra had secured the second slot by polling 32,480 votes.

The alleged killing of a Leuva Patel leader in Amreli by Kadva Patels (there are two types of Patels, Leuva and Kadva, and they are as opposed to each other as a quarreling pair of a mother-in-law and her daughter-in-law despite belonging to the same Patel community) may upset the equations for the BJP MLA from Amreli, Purushottam Rupala who is a Kadva Patel. Rupala had secured 28,239 votes against Jivraj Vagadia of the Congress.

For the BJP it may be a tough task to retain the Kodinar seat and an RJP candidate, if any, may prove a lame duck as Parmar, the master winner of the past from Kodinar first defected to the RJP, and has now switched over to the Janata Dal with master turncoat Atmaram Patel.

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