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'Sonia effect' galvanises AP Congressmen, leaves Naidu and Co floundering

The sullen mood of Andhra Pradesh Congressmen has suddenly brightened after the resounding success of the public meetings addressed by the party's star campaigner, Sonia Gandhi, in the state. The massive crowds have come as a shot in the arm for the Congress, and its main rival, the Telugu Desam Party, has been unable to do any better.

The meeting organised to kick off the United Front election campaign was no doubt attended by a large crowd, but the difference between the two Hyderabad meetings was perceptible. While there was spontaneity in the crowd response at Sonia's rally, the comparatively thinner crowd for the UF meeting seemed to have been brought for it.

The Congress too ferried people from the districts to the state capital, but there were no indication that they were unwilling to be there. At the UF meeting, addressed by Prime Minister I K Gujral, former prime minister H D Deve Gowda and TDP president N Chandrababu Naidu, the crowd was restless from the beginning, with the women in particular itching to leave. Even as the UF stalwarts were speaking, people started leaving but the volunteers and lathi-wielding policemen on the ground kept the exodus in check.

It was obvious that none of the leaders who addressed the meeting -- Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi, Assam Chief Minister P K Mahanta, Karnataka Chief Minister J H Patel, Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Dr Farooq Abdullah, Union Railway Minister Ram Vilas Paswan, Janata Dal president Sharad Yadav -- could evoke a positive response from the crowd. It was left to Naidu alone, who spoke at the end, to rouse the Telugu electorate in the language they understood best -- rhetoric.

The Congress in AP is ecstatic at the Sonia effect, and the unity which party leaders presented no sooner it became clear that a mid-term election was certain, continues.

If the anti-incumbency wave that seems to be gaining in the state can be converted into votes, the party also hopes to gain from its unity show.

Causing further worry for the TDP leadership is a state intelligence department report that the party may not fare well in the election for a variety of reasons.

If a mid-term election to the assembly was held now the TDP would be voted out of power, the intelligence department said in a recent report to Naidu. The report said the TDP would at the most bag 90 out of the 284 assembly seats, sources told this reporter.

For Naidu, the dilemma is acute: as UF convener, if he has to continue to play a crucial role in national politics, his party has to win a considerable number of seats in AP. For another, if his party fails to reach even its present tally, the demand for a mid-term election to the assembly will become vocal. For both reasons, Naidu would want his party to do well.

The TDP won 17 out of the state's 42 seats in the last parliamentary election while the Congress bagged 21. The All India Majlis Ittehadul Muslimeen regained the Hyderabad seat and the remaining three seats went to the Left parties which contested as the TDP's allies.

The stick the Congress will use to beat Naidu with will be the one which the TDP leader has himself given the party: non-implementation of poll promises.

The chief minister has scrapped the Rs 2 per kg rice scheme, lifted prohibition, and increased power tariff without even ensuring enough power supply. His much touted Janmabhoomi (self help) programme has not cut much ice with the people, who are disappointed that the promised development work in the villages has not been taken up by officials.

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