In a survey conducted by CNBC-TV18, fund managers across the board said that the bull market was not yet over.
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CNBC-TV18 FUND MANAGER SURVEY |
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1) Is the bull market over? |
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100%: Not over, only a healthy correction |
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2) How are markets valued? |
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Compelling: 47% |
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Fairly valued: 47% |
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Overvalued: 6% |
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3) What are the worrisome factors? |
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Liquidity, int rates: 60% |
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Global factors: 53% |
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Corporate earnings: 20% |
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FII outflows: 27% |
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4) What would you invest in now? |
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Large caps: 47% |
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Large & midcaps: 33% |
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Midcaps: 7% |
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All: 13% |
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5) Cash levels in portfolio |
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2-5%:13% |
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5-8%: 13% |
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8-10%: 33% |
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10% & >: 40 |
Almost half of them believed that valuations were compelling. Most of them felt that the Sensex would trade between 10,000 to 11,000 levels.
Also, most managers say that it looks like fairly decent levels to buy; nobody knows how low it's going to go. More aggressive managers might have to cut back their sales and marketing forces since markets have turned so sharply.
There was a 100% negative response to the question of whether the bull market is over. They all agreed that this phase is only a healthy correction.
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CNBC-TV18 FUND MANAGER SURVEY |
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6) Sensex 12-month target |
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9000-10000: 20% |
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10000-11000: 40% |
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11000-12000: 13% |
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12000 & >: 20% |
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Can't say: 7% |
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7) Would you invest in metal stocks? |
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Yes: 40% |
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No: 40% |
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Can't say: 20% |
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8)Overweight on |
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IT: 53% |
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Cement: 33% |
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Capital goods: 26% |
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FMCG: 33% |
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Auto: 33% |
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Pharma: 13% |
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Media, Energy, Banking: 7% |
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9) Underweight on |
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Oil & gas: 60% |
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Metals: 33% |
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Pharma: 27% |
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Banking: 27% |
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FMCG, Tech: 7% |
47% of the respondents said that the markets are compelling; another 47% said that they are fairly valued, while 6% said they are overvalued.
Factors to worry about would be Liquidity and interest rates according to 60% of our respondents, global factors, according to 53% of them, corporate earnings, according to 20% and FII outflows according to 27%.
At this point of time 47% of our respondents would invest in large caps, 33% in large & midcaps, 7% in midcaps and 13% in a combination of all.
According to 13% of the respondents, cash levels in portfolios are 2-5%, another 13% said that it is 5-8%, 33% of them said 8-10% and 10% that it is above 40%.
When asked what the Sensex 12-month target would be, 20% felt it would be between 9000-10000 points, 40% said between 10000-11000 points, 13% said between 11000-12000 points, 20% said it would be above 12000 points and 7% could not say.
40% of the respondents agreed that metal stocks would be a good investment, 40% differed and 20% had no response.
53% said there is overweight in the IT sector, 33% felt the same for the cement sector, 26% felt the same for capital goods, 33% in FMCG, 33% in Auto, 13% in pharmaceuticals and 7% felt that there is over weight in media, energy and banking sectors.
As for underweight, 60% felt it in the oil and gas sector, 33% in metals, 27% in Pharmaceuticals, 27% in banking and 7% in FMCG.
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