Premature to declare 3rd Covid wave: Scientists

August 04, 2021 15:44

The rise in fresh Covid cases and the effective reproduction number indication of how fast an infection spreads -- in many states is worrying but don't panic. Instead, mask up and get vaccinated, say experts, stressing that it is too early to declare the beginning of a new wave.

In fact, it could be that the second wave is not over, said several scientists who have been closely monitoring India's Covid graph and have noted the surge in a few pockets.

In the northeast, for instance, cases have certainly not gone down to the low levels that are being seen in Delhi and other northern states, observed Gautam Menon, professor, Departments of Physics and Biology at Ashoka University in Haryana.

"In that sense, we are likely seeing a continuation of the second wave rather than the initiation of a new Covid wave distinct from the previous one," he explained.

On Wednesday, India recorded 42,625 fresh Covid cases with a daily positivity rate of 2.31 per cent and a weekly one of 2.36 per cent. India's Covid situation is seemingly under control.

However, 13 states/union territories recorded a surge in coronavirus infections last week with Kerala reporting half of India's daily new cases. Last week, Kerala reported 1.4 lakh new COVID-19 cases, around 20,000 more than the previous week.

In the week ended August 1, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Mizoram, J&K, Sikkim, and Karnataka also witnessed a rise in cases. With the government warning that the pandemic is still raging, there is also an increase in India's effective reproduction number (R) which represents the number of susceptible people one Covid positive person may infect.

A recent analysis by researchers at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai, found that the effective R number in India has crossed 1 for the first time since May 7. The government on Tuesday also said the R-value is more than one in eight states and UTs, which is a cause of concern.

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