IMD forecast system ill-equipped
November 06, 2016 11:28
The India Meteorological Department's climate forecast system was ill-equipped to gaugecrucial oceanic phenomena, as a result of which it had to revise its prediction for rainfall from the Southwest Monsoon from 'above normal' to 'normal', a top official said.
The IMD will now make necessary amendments to its existing climate models for better prediction in the future, M Rajeevan, secretary, the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said.
It, at present, uses the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast SystemVersion 2 (CFSv2), procured from the United States, to understand oceanicpatterns.
The system was modified to suit IMD'S requirements.
As per IMD's initial forecast, rainfall from the Southwest Monsoon was expected to be 'above normal'.
September was expected to receive 'excess' rainfall, but that did not happen. This was primarily due to La Nina, an oceanic phenomenon linked to cooling of Pacific waters resulting in better monsoon in the Indian sub-continent.
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