Skymet forecasts 'above normal' rainfall this year
May 25, 2016  08:35
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As the country awaits the arrival of the southwest monsoon after two years of drought, private weather forecasting agency Skymet on Tuesday revised upward its 2016 southwest monsoon forecast to 109 per cent of the long period average from 105 predicted in April.

The forecast, if accurate, would mean that India might have its highest southwest monsoon since 1994 and rains might spill over well into October as the showers are predicted to gather steam in the second half of the June-September season.

According to Skymet's revised estimate, the rains this year would provide enough moisture not only for the kharif crops but also for the rabi farming season. The forecast has a model error of four per cent.

The LPA is the average rainfall for the monsoon for the period between 1951 and 2000. It is estimated to be 881 mm.

If the rainfall recorded in a year is between 96 and 104 per cent, it s considered "normal". Anything beyond is "above normal".

In April, Skymet, in its first forecast, had said the rains this year would be slightly "above normal", at 105 per cent of the LPA. Skymet is credited with correctly predicting the 2009 drought, but its first forecast of the 2015 southwest monsoon was way off the mark.
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