Explaining Delhi's polls and bets

February 10, 2015 08:21

The Delhi Assembly elections could yield three results. Some opinion polls give the Aam Aadmi Party a majority in the 70-seat Assembly, while other polls favour the Bharatiya Janata Party.

Some "pollsters" have also looked at the illegal betting market. Last time I checked (Friday morning), the bookies were offering 2.5:1 on the BJP and 3:1 on the AAP, with 25:1 on the Congress. Are the bookies right, or is it likely to be the AAP, or a hung Assembly?

Hard to say.

Election data and opinion polls are often cited by the statistically challenged. These data are also wilfully misinterpreted by the biased. Few people understand how polls, or bookies, operate. Read more

Pic: Not a soul outside the Congress HQ. Telling?

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