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'Pakistan is in a tight spot'18 September, 2001, New Delhi: Security analyst and Afghan expert Sreedhar gave his candid opinions on the war against terrorism that the United States is preparing to wage, against Osama bin Laden and the Taleban-ruled Afghanistan, the likely use of chemical and/or biological arms, Pakistan's dilemma, and India's perspective.
Gautam : Pakistan despite being a loser eitherways is
still getting a better bargain from the US in terms of money, Kashmir and India
not being involved. India on the other hand is prostrating before the US and
letting them walk all over us, how much will we lose out once the war
starts? Manav : Hi Sreedhar do you think that the US has the stomach to send an immense amount of ground troops in Afghanistan? Do you think these troops will face the same fate as Russians? Sreedhar : Hi Manav, I don't think the US will commit its ground troops in Afghanistan. It will be the troops of the Northern Alliance who are fighting against Taleban for the last seven-eight years. Uma : Hi Sreedhar what do you think Afghanistan will do now? will they hand over Osama? Sreedhar : If you go by the Taleban's behaviour in the past, it is highly unlikely that they will hand over Osama bi Landen. If they do so, the credibility of the entire movement carefully nurrtuerd during the past seven years will go astray. However, a formal announcement is expected by this evening from Taleban. Now the Ulemas meeting is on. Bharti : How do you think the US plans to fight their war against terrorism? Sreedhar : By physically liquidating the command-control system of the network built by Osama bin Laden Al-Quaida movement and afterwards picking up the network apparatus spread over 60 countries.So it is going to be a well-calculated strategy spread over a long time. Yarui : Do you fear that India and Pakistan both will face a severe backlash from Islamic militants? Sreedhar : In the event of a war, Pakistan will definitely face a backlash effect. In the case of India one cannot be certain because the Muslim population is well scattererd all over the c ountry and it does not seem to be accepting Taleban's interpretation of Islam. Mulana : Islamic terorists are spread acros the world, is every country financially, morally strong enough to actually fight this war? Sreedhar : The radical Ismamic groups are spread over 60 countries and four continents. They are sufficiently motivated groups and the links with narcotic trade gives them certain amount of financial autonomy. Therefore, they can retaliate. However, it would be an unconventional retaliation with unorthodox technique. Ila : India doesn't mind piggybacking with the US but after the Hijjack of Flight 814 we have done NUTHING at all!!! why is our givernment so weak? We already have the KAshmiri Jehadi's, ULFA'S, Naxalites, LTTE hitting us and yet we do nuthing Sreedhar : It is not factually correct. Indian republic is just 50 years old and in building a nation state we will be going through this process of seccessionism, violence and terrorism for some more time to come. Tarun : Does the US even know what they are in for taking on Afghanistan? Havent the Russians advised them of some other strategy? Sreedhar : The US strategy does not seem to be clear except for for considerable aerial bombardment to begin with. I think the US is prepared for a long drawn-out war for quite some time to come. Therefore, the mistakes committed by the Soviets are not likely to be repeated by the US. Tarun : Dont you forsee the US creating another monster by funding the Northern Alliance just like they created Osama to fight the Russians? Sreedhar : I don't think so. The Northern Alliance is not as fanatic as the Taleban is. Second, I don't think the US will commit the same mistake as they did with Taleban by allowing a free hand to whichever government that comes to power after the war. AshokReddyK : Hi Sreedhar, latest reports says Talibans put some conditions to extradition of Laden? If USA agree to those condtions what will be the effect on India,Pak,Afghan Sreedhar : Hi Ashok, the reports which you are mentioning seem to be speculative. The actual Taleban position will be known by today evening. I don't think Taleban will extradite Osama bin Laden. Malli : Will the terror attacks which are a sure thing for Pakistan to happen, make them come closer to India? And will the terroris in J&K get any less because of the Afghanistan war? Sreedhar : The way Pakistan is responding to the developments of September 11 is clear that it is in the process of disowning terrorism as an intrument of foreign policy. If they stick to this new stand, I see no reason why it should not come closer to India. But it will automatically weaken the jehadi outfits operating in Jammu and Kashmir. Veena : In todays day and age do u ever forsee a nuclear bomb or chemical warfare happening? Sreedhar : While everybody rules out the possibility of a nuclear weapon being used, a similar thing is not being ruled out for chemical and biological weapons.Which of the two warring sides will use it first is not clear as yet. Zafar : hi, sreedhar it is learned that the taliban has set the terms to hand up osama. what do u think abt this? Sreedhar : Zafar, the reports that are coming in the media about Taleban's conditions regarding handing over Osama and striking a deal with the US are are speculative. I think the actual position will be known later today. sansana : hi..don't u think its high time indian politicians stop acting like our cricketers who always lose ou on finals.This oppurtunity was the best time to fight back pakistan and india lost this oppurtunity. Sreedhar : What you say in the other context might be true. India's response to the September 11 events is quite well-calculated. It has placed Pakistan, the state that sponsors terrorism in the Indian sub-continent, in a tight spot. Anurag : With Visibly no infrastructure left in Afganistan,What do they stand to lose if a war is imposed on them? Sreedhar : Hi Anurag, the command and control system of the outfits of Taleban and Osama are located in places like Kandahar, Kabul and Jallalabad inside Afghanistan. They will be prime targets of any US attack. sanjay : what r the places in india from where we can hit afgan. Sreedhar : Mostly from J & K. subhash : Due to think an attack of this scale is possible without the involvement of some secret agency of some country? Sreedhar : The inlvovement of intelligence agencies in operations of this type which started on September 11 by the US should be accepted. I am sure various intelligence agencies across the world must be extending all types of help to the US. Ashu : Hi Shreedhar, I am Ashu a concerned citizen of India, my question is "has India anything to lose in what ever be the outcome of the so much chaos" Sreedhar : Hi Ashu, thanks for the question. I entorely agree with you that India cannot lose anything by the chaos that started on September 11. I think India's position on cross-border terrorism has been vindicated and whatever happens in Afghanistan and Pakistan in the next few weeks will be a major setback to terrorism and violence in the Indian sub-continent. evsubbarao : with the given ground conditions, is it not possible for battle hardened Bin Laden to escape from Afgan in the event of war? Sreedhar : It is highly unlikely that Osama would escape. That is unbecoming of a leader. suma : What specific diplomatic initiatives should India undertake in the light of full pakistan support to US? Sreedhar : Right at the moment India need not take any new initiative except extending the support to the US and its allies' fight against terrorism. This would automatically force Pakistan to abandon the path of violence to resolve bilateral disputes. It can no longer support any jehadi movements in the name of liberation. viv : Sir, what are the chances of the attack on Afganistan? Whien is it likely to come?? Sreedhar : The chances are quite high. The war may start anytime. Gagan : Hi Sridhar,well i think that if the countries like india would have cared much about their citizens, the unemployed youth would not have got any reason to join terrorism and moreover fundamentalists could not have encouraged them if they were happy in their own country Sreedhar : I understand the emotions behind your question but a nation-buildinglike that of India is not going to be an easy process. Many have to make sacrifices. The unemployed youth should not get disillusioned by the state of affairs. Joining in radical movements by them is not going to be a solution. rajesh : wht do u think that india's role will be in the coming days Sreedhar : Right at the moment, India is committed to fight terrorism in any form anywhere in the world. Since the events of the past few days clearly indicate that the whole thing is happening in iuts immediate neighbouirhood. Therefore, India cannot remain a silent spectator. It may have to actively support this war against terrorism. neeraj : what are your predictions as to when the war is going to start Sreedhar : Hi Neeraj, I have not studied astrology or crystal-gazing. But as an analyst I feel that the war is not very far off. It can start in the next few days. mdhanerva : what will be the fate of attack on Afganistan from Indian point of view? Sreedhar : Any attack on Afghanisatn by the US and its allies would mean dismantling of terrorist command and control network of Taleban and Osama. Since the terrorists in India get their inspiration and motivation from this outfit, its destruction would have a demoralising effect on terrorists operating in India. Vijay : Do you think Pakistan will get OBL extradited to a muslim country and come out winner? Sreedhar : It is highly unlikely. The question of putting of OBL on trial in a third country like Saudi Arabia is an old story. The Taleban made this type of offer at least twice in the past. CC : What r the chances Taliban will attack Pakistan? Sreedhar : In the event of a war against the Taleban from the Pakistani soil, it is almost certain that the Taleban's first target would be Pakistan. s : Pak & Taliban, is there any difference in the military setup ? I think they are the same Sreedhar : Pakistan has a professional army of more than half a million men and are used for regular warfare. Whereas the Taleban is a loosely-knit force of 30,000-35000 who can fight only a guerilla war. Whenever the Taleban was to fight a pitched battle like in Kabul at the time of September 1996, the Pakistani armed forces went and fought the war. Therefore, you cannot compare the both of them as being the same. rav : Do u think Laden will ever be caught ? Sreedhar : I don't think so. teyu_duyen : hi Why has the Indian government taken a pre-determined stance even before any formal request from the US?Dont you think India should have been more sober and sane in making this offer beforehand? Sreedhar : India's fight against terrorism is well known. The unqualified support it extended to the US even before a formal request came is a sort of invitation to the US to come and join India's fight against terrorism.So long folks, time has run out. Hoqwever, those of you wqho wish to contact me, here is my email address : sreedhar_30@hotmail.com.Bye, it was fun talking to you
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