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'Jaya's election is a pity'Bombay, 13 May 2001: Prem Panicker and Amberish K Diwanji took questions on The Rediff Chat, where clearly there was strong dismay at the fact that Jayalalitha had romped home the winner.A K Diwanji : Sure, I am here! And so is Prem! assam : Who is leading A K Diwanji : In Assam, the Congress; in Bengal, the Left Front; in Kerala, the UDF has secured a majority; in Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK; in Pondicherry, the Congress-Tamil Maanila Congress (allied with AIADMK). kary : I don't Know What is Happening in TN A K Diwanji : Jayalalitha's AIADMK is set to win the elections in Tamil Nadu, securing a stable majority. Kumar : Give me the Detailed leading List of each State with each party ? A K Diwanji : That would be difficult; May I suggest that you visit rediff.com and take a look at the statewise lists. The lists are being updated constantly to reflect the latest results. Anyway the trends are as mentioned earlier. vasu : Is there a chance of shashikala taking the mantle of CM (alias rabri devi) A K Diwanji : That is a good question and something on which there is much speculation. That Jaya might nominate Sasikala, or T T V Dinakaran. There is even the possibility that she might take up the mantle, at least for the 6 months that she is allowed to. fasa : give me the detailed leading list of kerala A K Diwanji : UDF: Won-101, Leading-76; LDF: Won-38, Leading-24; Others: Won-1, Leading-1 Prem Panicker : observer asks, are these results a referendum on the NDA govt. at the centre?Be rather hard to make such an argument, given that in none of the states was the central government and its performance made an issue Mahesh : Do you all really think Sasikala could be projected by Jaya Prem Panicker : I very much doubt that Jayalalitha would be stupid enough to do that -- it is the surest way to alienate both her allies, and her cadres. She knows there is still trouble ahead -- a case in which she is awaiting sentencing for starters. The last thing she wants to do now is alienate support Keyur : What do U think ...are the people of Tamil Nadu mad to bring in power a female who since has been under the shadow of corruption Prem Panicker : Look at it this way -- last time, DMK fought on the issue of corruption. This time, once Jaya's nominations were rejected,the DMK goofed, decided not to go hammer and tongs at her, and concentrated on talking about their own government instead. So all the mileage on corruption went to Jaya -- and the DMK was left with the weak speeches of Chidambaram, who was the only person who was deputed to take her on. bala : will the PSU disinvestment be delayed at center due to this results? Prem Panicker : But why, Bala? What has that got to do with this? As far as I can see, no one ever made disinvestment a major election issue -- and these results dont alter the party position at the Centre either, so hey admkv : Prem, why do NRI's blindly support any party aligned with BJP Prem Panicker : God knows, friend. It is something I've always wondered. Keyur : Dont U think the BJP shuld sit and have a close look at the election results and shuld develop a impression they are not required by the masses Prem Panicker : Should the BJP look at these results? Most definitely. Is there disillusionment? Again, definitely. Will it have any short term impact? That I very much doubt, in fact, just minutes before, Jana Krishnamurthy said something on those lines when commenting on the results. pankaj : Anybody want to talk about politics in Assam? A K Diwanji : I am no expert on Assam, but go ahead and let me know if I can help? Keyur : Do U think that BJP will again rake up the temple issue to mislead the masses A K Diwanji : Good question. On one hand, the BJP might now feel vulnerable to pressure from its allies and would not like to rake up issues that don't go down too well with its allies; on the other hand, hardliners will now push for their agenda, esp since in all this Vajpayee will appear weak. The next few weeks will be interesting. gvnathan : Prem ..any idea about Villivakkam constituency chennai.. Prem Panicker : Not just yet, pal... I dont have the individual breakdown yet asumroy : To Prem Panicker: When have you started taking interest in cricket? I thought this chat was on cricket. Prem Panicker : *laughing* Hey, not my fault if you guys get the impression I am Rediff's cricket correspondent, and dont do anything else Keyur : But why are they doing this..aren't they taking the illiterate Indians for a ride.... Prem Panicker : Sure. But then, what is politics in india all about if not taking illiterates for a ride? I remember seeing this exit poll, where 52 per cent of the illiterate population supposedly backs Jaya. Which, considering the AIADMK vote share is generally in the early 40s, means the bulk of her support is from there. shrikant : Dear Prem: NRIs have a clearer vision from far away. They generally do not have Indian newspapers to bias their opinions and honestly, BJP comes out far ahead in NRIs' list. Prem Panicker : I see. Well, I guess that explains it. Also, I guess the NRIs as a whole are more tolerant of promises that sound good but are never kept. I was thinking the other day, that we used to talk at one time of stuff like "hot pursuit" as a response to militants. made me feel good, I thought, okay, finally, we do something about it. Oh well... anyways bala : Do you think the number of foriegn companies coming to tamilnadu will dessipate due to corrupt jaya in place.Than go to Karnataka & Andra. Prem Panicker : That I think would depend on whether Jaya makes the same mistake, of keeping all decisions in her hands. Last time, that was the problem -- no one wanting to invest could get anything done till they met her, and she wouldn't meet anyone. if she goes for the same style of governance again, then yes, I would think people would get fed up and head for neighbouring states asumroy : To Prem gain, do you find politics sufficiently interesting? Prem Panicker : I am a journalist, have been one for 12 years. Only for the last five, have I been writing about cricket. I find life interesting, in all its aspects Keyur : Prem : Do U believe in one way or the other ..the Charm of Sonia is setting in...whether it be sooner or later and is giving the BJP the run for money Prem Panicker : I don't think so, if the Congress ever comes back, Sonia I suspect will have very little to do with it, it will have to be an anti-incumbency vote that does it. Sonia's 'charm', for whatever it was worth, was at its peak last time, and eventually, didnt translate into results. But if the Cong is smart and brings Priyanka in, that could be another story -- she, I notice, gets the crowds going. xxx : To Prem Actually What Happened in TN ? Prem Panicker : And to SRINI, ABOUT THE INCUMBENCY FACTOR: I dont think incumbency had anything to do with it -- actually, the government was very good, and I know first hand, been there often enough lately. Besides having spoken to oodles of people. I think the DMK made two mistakes -- they went too soft on Jayalalitha, which tothe illterate section of the audience meant they weren't confident of their charges -- remember how tough they were last time. And two, they projected STalin -- who can't hold a crowd like his father can, and who has no support outside of Chennai proper srinivas : It is a good lesson for mamta.BJP should not take her into ministry again. A K Diwanji : It sure is a lesson for Mamata. The BJP won't be in a hurry to take her back, unless their stability at the Centre is under threat. In such a situation, the BJP might prefer to let bygones be bygones. srini : There is legal hurdle for JAYA to become CM In Tamilnadu A K Diwanji : Jaya is going to pose a constitutional question. There is no constitutional bar on her being elected leader of the majority party in the TN assembly (who is then invited by the state governor to become chief minister). Problem is, that the Election Commission code now bars her from standing for election. So very technically, she can become CM and by law, has to be elected within 6 months, but so far, she can't contest elections!!! vj : dont you guys have something better to do? get a ucking life..whether its karunannidhi or jaya it doesnt matter..'cause they all stink..indian politics is the filthiest..so get a life..dont waste ur time chating with prem..he gets paid for chatting.. Prem Panicker : VJ: Given that is how you feel about it, why not leave? As to the other, I certainly hope you are writing the cheques -- no one here is, at least, not for chatting. Geez, some folks act like little kids yelling and screaming for attention arjun : prem....where does the congress go form here...do the people want them back or is this a local referendum Prem Panicker : Where does it go, Arjun? On the plus side, it has nowhere to go but up. And it can -- but there is a huge heap of IFs. IF they can come up with a coordinated programme, that is aimed at creating a groundswell of opinion. IF they can come up with a leader whose appeal transcends their constituency and at best, their state. IF the Congress stopped reacting each time they are baited, and lose the plot (vide Tehelka -- they had a chance there, but ended up getting all defensive about Sonia and Bofors and let the BJP off the hook). And so on, down a long line of IFs. Administrator : vj, pls mind your language or we'll be forced to throw you out. hello : Prem, could something similar to the US elections have happened? i.e. people thinking that they were voting for DMK but actually voting for ADMK because of the electronic voting system? Prem Panicker : Not in such large numbers, no way. let's face it, not much of a difference. earlier you looked for a symbol and made yourr mark, now you do the same, but press a button instead, you can't explain a complete washout that way Mike : Prem what is ur opinion on Cho's role in TN election outcome? Prem Panicker : There was a time when he was the voice of reason -- but that is when he was a non-aligned journalist. Now he is a politician, and proving to be less principled than most. For Cho of all people to have supported Jayalalitha was a shocker -- considering all he knows about her. roy : Will Mamata now seek refuge with the NDA?? Prem Panicker : Jana Krishnamurthy, just half an hour ago, was asked that question and he said, no way we will take her back arjun : but prem....the country does need the congress.had it been strong as in the past in tamil nadu...the dravidian parties would not have been ble to ply the caste card freely and the electorate would have had a decent choice... Prem Panicker : Granting that, Arjun, the problem for the Congress has always been that they keep piggybacking on the Dravida Kazhaghams, one or the other, and having done that over theyears, today they have no individual identity, or cadre, in TN. And when that happens, a party is finished. srinivas : Now I think congress should behave maturely unlike in tehelka case where all the initial advantage they have lost. Prem Panicker : Exactly. And they lost it because instead of keeping the spotlight on Tehelka, they got too busy defending their leader against the BJP's retaliatory accusations. And before they knew what was happening, the whole focus shifted from the BJP in the dock, to the Congress in defensive mode. Stupid, really rolly : Prem, who will be next chief minister of Tamil Nadu Prem Panicker : I suspect that they will make Jayalalitha the leader of the legislature party -- for one thing, she wont trust anyone else with that power and for another, there is no other one leader acceptable to all. which means she will be the next CM, barring a miracle karthik : Hi Prem...now, with the return of Jayalalitha to power in TamilNadu, do you foresee a major problem with the national political scene...i wish India doesnt have to go through one more change in the government Prem Panicker : Not in the near future, karthik. if you think about it,t he BJP has no stakes in any of these states anyways. I think from the central point of view, the real crux will come end ofthis year or early next, when UP goes to the polls -- if the BJP fares badly there, then yes, the Centre could get shaken,bad arjun : ok prem...how do u think th ltte factor affected the elections and how will the new govt deal with them Prem Panicker : Actually, I think the LTTE didn't have the impact, as an electoral factor, that everyone thought it would. The average TN voter frankly is concerned with his and her immediate concerns. But yes, the LTTE is going to be a major headache for the government... more so, because if Jaya's second innings is like her first, then the government will be cumbersome and slow moving, no quick decisions will be taken, everyything will be referred back to Amma who for her part sees files if and when she has nothing better to do.. and that kind of thing can be lethal when dealing with things like this. Mike : Someone by name Pankaj wanted to know about Assam, can any of you say A K Diwanji : Parties Lead Won Congress: Lead-40; Won-0;; AGP-BJP: Lead-32; Won-0;; Others: Lead-12; Won-0;; joy : whats the situation in west bengalleft front seems to be leading is it???whats the prediction ??/ Prem Panicker : In WB just now, it is 186 to the left, 84 to the TC. Pretty clear picture, you dont need to predict ab : will moopanar become cm and will he join hands with cong Prem Panicker : No way on earth -- Jaya won't trust Moopanar, plus she never forgets an injury and Moopanar injured her badly last time round, cobbling the TMC-DMK alliance and more importantly, along with Cho getting Rajnikanth involved. No way she will put him in a position where he can take decisions that could, among other things, affect her own future mallu : hi Prem, are we going to see a repeat of Bihar in Tamil nadu??? Prem Panicker : Why going to? We already are seeing that situation -- caste-based parties calling the shots in their own regions. Earlier, when the Congress was a force, they had the Dravidian plank to fight from. Now, there are only two parties and both are Dravidian, so where is the difference? Given that, caste had to come in, and it has shanthiem : Given the scenario in Tamilnadu, is not a mistake by the Literate people in avoiding voting - which brings back the corrupt Jayalalitha back to seat?? Prem Panicker : Shanti, it is always a mistake when literate people dont vote. a bigger problem is that even if every single literate person in a state votes, he or she is still easily outnumbered by the others -- the real problem is the enormous percentage of our population that remains illiterate gopal : MK must have accommodated MDMK (Vaiko) and he should not announed Stalin as the next CM Prem Panicker : I agree, entirely. Vaiko had pan-TN appeal. And STalin is the kiss of death, anywhere outside of Chennai proper naveenking : Of course Prem will lose an admirer,i have been one of his greatest fans ,for his exceptional cricket writings,but such experiences can put u off Prem Panicker : What on earth is this all about? naveenking : Even though the Vote percentage of the parties has not marginal,the number of seats won have been huge.Do u see a change for th better from this First -past-the-post scheme Prem Panicker : Interesting question that, actually, I was waiting to see the full results, tally and stuff in, and see just what has been happening, why, and how. It definitely is grist for an analysis, there will be one on Rediff once we get the entire details. No, I am not avoiding your question, merely saying it aint the kind of one I want to answer off the top joy : prem , considering the fact that indias political situation is complex and intriguing, what do think has the leftist government in west bengal has in special that holds them in power for such a long time when similar parties fail to do so in other states ?????/ Prem Panicker : Joy, if I had the ansewr to that one, I would have founded a party myself and run it on the same principles. One thing, though -- communist parties are very disciplined, cadre based -- and down the years, no other party has ever attempted to challenge them where it matters,w hich is the grassroots. In Bengal, simply going over during election time and making speeches wont work -- the real battle is every day, in the tea shops and bus stands and such where the political debates rage. And no party has any kind of presence at that level barring the Left. Which could be one reason. naveenking : thanx a lot Diwanji for respondingbye all and have a great time chatting,God save india A K Diwanji : welcome mallu : Prem, can u list out the major reasons why the verdict was so much against DMK. I was in madras for 2 years of its rule and i think it was not that bad..what do u think were the real issues. How can someone bring back a lady who is so much into corruption?? Prem Panicker : I did. One, the fact thta the DMK foolishly chose to soft peddle on Jayalalitha. Was stupid to go to villages nad talk about constitutional problems. They needed to go, on and on, on one line: See, we said she is a thief and now the court says so too. Instead, they debated the constitution, and left it to Chidambaram to talk of her corruption. Two, theyf ailed to understand that caste politics was taking over. Three, they pushed Stalin down the electorate's throat, thinking his popularity in Madras would translate into popularity across the state. alit : well, given the trend in kerala... where not party was able to rule for 2 consecutive terms... congress HC could have avoided nullyfying Karunakaran ? A K Diwanji : Good point. It is really debatable how much of a difference Karunakaran's absence would have made!! karthik : so Prem..i have a question for you...u have written a lot about Indian cricket and the indian politics...so what do u see in common...is there sthg serious lacking in our system.. Prem Panicker : Yes there is. Talent. Honesty. Integrity. A passion for what you are doing. An ability to keep the country's best interests in mind and work towards that, and only that. naveenking : Can u correlate the similarities and differences between the BCCI and Indian politicians Prem Panicker : Both are the same, for the reasons I just gave Karthik. srinivas : If Jaya makes someone with clean record as the CM the I think she will win the appreciation of the people. Prem Panicker : Ah, but who is that someone? Goondas she has, by the dozen. Clean records? Rather harder to find, would love to see who she comes up with vinayjaswal : prem,do you think jayalalitha will become cm despite the orders from the court on the contrary. Prem Panicker : There is no order from any court in the land which, at this point in time, says she can't be CM. anil : Premji, what about your coments regardings jayalalitha's party victory in TN? Eventhough she was accused in somany court cases. Prem Panicker : My comment? It is a huge pity, and over the course of the next five years, the state will suffer. What else is there to say? You can forgive everyything, even corruption given that I cant think of a single non-corrupt party in India today. But not administrative incompetence and apathy, which described her previous regime. It is like this high up govenrment official once told me: "The difference is, if Karunanidhi takes money,the work will get done; if Jaya takes money, your money is gone, the work will remain undone, and if you ask her about it you get beaten up." Administrator : bogie: While we can't accede to your request right away, we'll work on it so that the next time it refreshes only on your click. Mike : Diwanji- Can you throw more light on the dichotomy that exisits in High Lietreacy in TN & a person like Jaya voted back ?? A K Diwanji : Really don't have an answer. One reason could be that for the poor people, corruption is not such a big issue as the middle class make it out to be; this explains why so many corrupt people keep winning time and again. A second reason, in the case of TN, is what Prem told me: that Karunanidhi did not play up the issue of corruption in his campaigning to make it "the issue" of the elections. rahul : premji,do you think jayalalitha will become cm despite Prem Panicker : I think Jaya will be CM, at least initially, yes. Simply because her mentality is such that she will not entrust that power to anyone else. Her first goal will be to wriggle off the legal hook she is on, and to do that,the CM's seat helps. Why would she give it to someone else who could, conceivably, make her position worse so he himself could take over the party? rsondur : Prem, Once again. Why were the opinion polls so off the mark? Prem Panicker : rsondur: heck, opinion polls are funny. Depends what question you ask. if you ask anyone in Madras if he is happy with the government he will say yes. Actually, the answer to this is an interesting thing I once heard, if you guys stop questions, I'll tell you the story, next post. gks : Hi Premji..People says JAYA has changed. what's your opinion. Prem Panicker : She has changed how, friend? I would really hope so. Jayalalitha Mark I was the outside of enough thomseb : Prem, And there is no else one else in the party to take over if necessary... Prem Panicker : Precisely. Both Dravida parties, in fact, are struggling to find leadership. After Karunanidhi, there really is no one else with pan-TN appeal for the DMK, and the same is true for the AIADMK vide Jayalalitha. Vaiko is the only leader who had that appeal, but the DMK by expelling him, lost that advantage Prem Panicker : On Opinion polls: Let us assume that we are discussing gun control. Here is one set of questions: naveenking : The opinion Polls' results are only as good as anybody's guess.They are more off the mark each time.When something goes right,they say that the predictions have come true.No one can actually predict the Indian voters' mind till election day A K Diwanji : While any prediction is dicey (no one has seen the future!!), this time round, most opinion polls predicted the results correctly. However, one tragedy is that the Indian press tends to show its political prejudices in its opinion polls. And that leads to wrong prognosis. Prem Panicker : Do you think crime is on the rise? Do you think one problem is that the police to public ratio is too little, and not enough police to protect you? Do you then think that private people should be given the right to bear arms and defennd themselves and their property? I think you would say yes to all that, right? Right. Now look at it this way.... mallu : another reason i asked if TN is going the Bihar way is Jayalalitha being the CM. There wont be a second opinion on the fact that no matter what the court's verdict is, she is going to control directly or indirectly following the footsteps our one and only Laloo...hail amma...i guess she may have to make couple of trips to Bihar sson and get few lessons... Prem Panicker : On this, yes, I definitely agree... one thing is for sure, the next six months, TN one way or other will be in the headlines more often than not. Prem Panicker : Do you think crime is on the rise? do you think one reason is that lethal weapons are too freely available to the young, disaffected people? do you think therefore that there should be stricter gun control laws? See how, depending on how your question is phrased, the anse3r changes? And who frames the questions? People with their own biases. Which is why I never take those polls seriously naveenking : The future of Indian cricket looks up after the team has had a set of fresh blood in the team.Don't u think that politics needs a fresh lease of young blood so that India's future too looks up in young hands Prem Panicker : Most definitely yes. Everyone in politics today without exception is tainted, no one has the undiluted image. We need youngg people, with education, passion, vision. Trouble is, given the condition of politics today, those young people would rather commit suicide than enter any party... so we are doomed to this sort of situation for quite a while longer, I would think Kaushik : Don't you think that Mamata got what she deserved ? A K Diwanji : She certainly didn't get what she was expecting and hoping for!! Kaushik : What about the impact on the BJP ? Is it truly a national party? Prem Panicker : When was it ever? gks : Looks downfall of BJP has started from these elections ..what premji's view !! Prem Panicker : I think the real verdict on the BJP government will come in UP... one way, or the other, those results will be more to the point than these, given that in none of these states does the BJP have any presence worth mentioning. In UP, whatever the parties say at the time, a state assembly election will be nothing more or less than a referendum on the BJP as a whole shanthiem : Premji, To what extend Jaya can bend the Law??(as a chief minister) Prem Panicker : Post friendly judges for starters. USe her clout with the CM, at the centre, for another. Both are things she has done before. shanthiem : Premji, What will be future for Karunanithi/DMK?? Prem Panicker : ACtually, that is one thing I was thinking myself. I dont know if you realise it, butthe DMK is effectively finished. We will bury the corpse maybe five years later, but the party is dead. karunanidhi has fought his last election -- and the party does not have one single leader with similar stature to hold it together, as Karunanidhi did all these years despite first MGR, then Jaya. So -- unless a leader emerges miraculously, and it is hard to see who and from where -- I think the DMK as a political force will not outlive this new assembly rishi : Will Jayalalithat become CM premji??? Prem Panicker : I think so yes. sondur : Question about BJP. The comment I heardthat Congress always piggybacked on either DMK/AIDMK in the past, so could never do well.Isn't BJP doing the same and to a very large extent? The way Mamta treated BJP recently with the railwaybudget was terrible. If you can't push your own agenda especially on such important matters such as economy, whygovern? Prem Panicker : Absolutely. The BJP, for all its criticisms of the Congress, ahs been taking its political and economic cues from that party -- the Congress should sue it for plagiarism, really. Even now, the BJP chiefs are saying, "We have nothing at stake in those states, we are only trying to improve our position" Huh? you are a national party, and have "nothing at stake" in five states and a total of nearly 900 assembly seats???? hitler : hello,i am vexed up with this democracy,people have to choose either of two parties,both being involved in many brutal acts,something should happen to change this process,whereever we go,bribe,selfish ness,etc i want a change in the whole society Prem Panicker : Hitler: the ansewr is NOT to post the same thing again and again, pal. i agree, but what is that change going to be and who is going to bring it about? the same politicians who ahve a vested interest in maitaning the status quo? Prem Panicker : Guys, I need to get some other work done, so for a while, leaving you with Ambarish Diwanji -- who having spent a whole heap of time in Delhi orchestrating our political coverage on rediff, is probably better fitted to answer these questions anyways. Be back later, adios for now, gone boogie : is the session closed ? i dont see any replies from Diwanji... A K Diwanji : i don't have any questions! Seems you guys are enjoying chatting among yourselves! hitler : how can left front be able to retain its power after as long as 25 years of rule with no incumbancy factor,is it because the opponenets are not strong or left doing well A K Diwanji : believe me, it is an answer that no one has. I am sure that even the LF does not know why it keeps winning. But certainly the LF has a great hold on rural Bengal, where it has implemented land reforms and changed the landscape. And yes, weak oppositions only help! naveenking : not really Diwanji.i think u should find this interesting.Which is the lesser evil DMK or ADMK A K Diwanji : Choosing a good politician or political party is like choosing between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea!! But personally, I am dead against corruption and hence not pleased by Jaya's return to power!! Still, we have to know why the TN voted for her. shanthiem : Diwanji, i have posted a question, wondering even people like cho and Moopanar supported Jaya - the corrupt leader? A K Diwanji : One fear that both Cho and Moopanar had about DMK is that it was always seen as being soft on Tamil extremists. Both Cho and Moopanar believe that on that count, Jaya is better. And for Moopanar, he obviously got a better deal from ADMK than from DMK! sondur : Someone asked a question about future of Karunanidhi and DMK. What about Mamata Banerjee? Is she finished as well? (I hope so) A K Diwanji : Not really, someone has to occupy the opposition space, and Mamata is best suited for it. Her problem now will be to keep the Trinamool Congress intact for the next five years. bellow : Questions/Chat My Conversation kelucharan says, Ambarish , Three years back I hadpredicted Prem would ditch cricket for politics. Tellhim that is the way his stars will take him.bellow says, diwanji,i think this is a thumbsup win for congress,their morale is high now,infact they did well in thier regime compared to BJP,congress should be more careful in taking decisions,because it is the only alternative left for whole india in coming electionsKunal says, premji are this election results be interpreted as anti vajpayee wavehitler says, diwanji,i think this is a thumbsup win for congress,their morale is high now,infact they did well in thier regime compared to BJP,congress should be more careful in taking decisions,because it is the only alternative left for whole india in coming electionsshanthiem says, No Diwanji, but MK promised 40 seats for TMC - a better deal - is it not??naveenking says, Do u think that Stalin can be a worthy successor to his more illustrous father as far as A K Diwanji : Let me reply to that one by one: Will tell Prem;Certainly the Congress must be feeling upbeat, but one good thing about Indian politics is that states and centre vote patters are different, and Sonia is still not acceptable; let us see which way the wind blows a year later. srinivas : Do you think Karunanidhi will take up the challenge of being a responsible opposition leader? A K Diwanji : Karunanidhi will like to see his son Stalin succeed him and move away from the limelight. So we need to see waht he does. Also, DMK out of power may not take to Stalin as easily as they may have had the retained power. prasadhsk : sir its almost clear that AIADMK is about to sweep the elections in tamilnadu .will congress oppose jayalaitha candidature for CM post as this will hamper congress creditality of bringing a person who has been prosecuted in jail? A K Diwanji : That does seem unlikely, considering that they supported her in the first place. hiphiphurray : Is the behaviour of Mamta now not very unpredictable ? Do you think any political group be comfortable in forming an alliance with her ? A K Diwanji : No group will be comfy forming an alliance with Mamata, but if they need her support, they will certainly do so (despite what the BJP says, if the it came to the crunch, even they would take her support provided it was available) Shankar : What do u think will be on top in Jayalalitha's agenda after assuming power ?? A K Diwanji : I replied to that earlier: ensuring that the cases against her are dropped or stalled, and somehow staying on as CM. shanthiem : can you tell the current status in TN results (especially the split up in ADMK, DMK fronts) A K Diwanji : Parties Lead Won DMK+Allies: Lead-38, Won-13; AIADMK+Allies: Lead-195, Won-106; Others: Lead-1, Won-1 eswaran : DIWANJI, why is that the Tamil chauvanist groups have not played any part in this elections even after the Rajkumar - Veerappan episode ?? A K Diwanji : Maybe because Tamil chauvinism is no longer an issue as it was some decades ago. And the Veerappan-Rajakumar case was resolved most amicably, hence it never became an issue. bhutu : Its seems people in bengal dont wants change .we no longer call the begali people a politically concious community. A K Diwanji : Many will disagree. Mamata had not endeared herself to many, including my Bengalli friends, who were taken aback by her street-style politics and her ditching the BJP for the Congress opportunistically. Maybe the Bengallis are very astute! amma : Who will be the TN Chief Minister ? A K Diwanji : Jaya is on TV right now and she is clearly saying that she will respect the people's verdict (meaning that she will be the CM!) shalini : Me thinks the TN winners TMC, PMK et al would be the most sad people - they cannot share power now and would be sidelined by the arrogant Jaya! Amberish? A K Diwanji : We all have to see how Jaya behaves. I think her first priority is to get the cases against her dropped or at least stalled, and to ensure that she can become CM; so to that extent she won't ruffled the TMC and PMK. Later, of course, it is anyone's guess; but then these guys have the option of joining the DMK!! gogo : what do u think will happen to mr.murasolimaran A K Diwanji : no idea; hope he stays on as the Union minister of commerce and industry, because he is really very good (unfortunately, his ill health is affecting him also). NADIR : hey mr diwanji wheres my prem uncle? A K Diwanji : prem uncle is taking a break. I hope he returns to the Chat, but he is quite busy. ravichandra : itis obvious that no ruling party will get mandate twice in recent times A K Diwanji : save for the LF in Bengal (which almost has a Permanent Settlement), that does seem to be the emerging trend. eswaran : diwanji, r u there ?? A K Diwanji : sure srinivasjl : what is the latest position of all parties in states of byelection A K Diwanji : pls chenk the rediff site. sushilkumar : This is a sad day for tamilians. Because they have selected a greatest & corrupt person. Does this indicate that all tamilians love corruption and greed? A K Diwanji : Certainly no one loves greed and corruption. But maybe for the poor people in India (& not just TN), corrution is not the major issue the middle class likes to believe it is. sagun : to ab amma kursi per baitengi A K Diwanji : lagta to hai kuch aisa hi srinivas : Don't you think people voted against Vajpayee's handling of the govt.? A K Diwanji : No. Indian politics has matured to the level that voters differentiate between state politics and national politics. Thus, while the results will boost Congress morale, it hardly means that the Congress is set to take over Parliament. Ramesh : Hi Diwanji. What will impact on BJP/NDA A K Diwanji : The Congress will be more agressive, and the BJP allies more restive and also more assertive. But unless some upheaval takes place, the NDA will continue in power. bhutu : diwanji... can jyoti basu become governer of Bangal prvided Congress comes to power at the centre. A K Diwanji : Extremely unlikely. srinivas : Why not?It's BJP+Allies who have lost A K Diwanji : In the states; at the Centre they are still holding strong. To upset the BJP/NDA at the Centre will take something more than the current state elections, like the TDP going away or the temple issue becoming big again. mcduck : i wonder how u conclude that indiandemocracy has matured A K Diwanji : to the extent that state and national issues are seen and voted for differently. this trend has been discernable since the mid-80s. bhutu : do you think Tehelka episode played a major role in bengal verdict. A K Diwanji : Not to sure about the Tehelka episode, but certainly the way Mamata ditched the BJP in their hour of crisis obviously riled the people and showed as being untrustworthy. No one wants a CM who appears non-dependable, Mamata gave that impression. narayan : I MEAN TO SAY PEOPLE WILL JUST FORGIVE WHTEVER THE POLITICIANS DOES. NOW IT IS VERY COMMON FOR POLITICIAN THAT THEY ARE SURE AFTER 3-YEAR EVERY TIME THEY CAN EASILY COME BACK FOR POWER. A K Diwanji : The tragedy is that people regularly vote out the politicians, but the person voted in is just another politician, cut from the same cloth. So even if you boot out one, you have little choice but to vote in the other. The need is to go beyond a choice of two corrupt politicians. sushilkumar : Dont You feel that our constitution is incompetent to weed out such high profile greed and corrupt politicians? A K Diwanji : The constitution is as good or bad as the people make it. But I agree that we need more stringent laws against corruption. rpc : So is ADMK gonna get majority on its own? I hope not, atleast relying on allies will keep the megalomaniac JJ under check! A K Diwanji : Yes. praveen : WHAT MADE UDF GOVT TO POWER IN Kerala? A K Diwanji : Kerala has the habit of alternating between the UDF and LDF. But corruption charges against the LDF did play a role. kaushik_ray : do u see any future for west bengal A K Diwanji : only if the LF can control its unions. Bengal has no investment, the best Bengallis are leaving the state by the thousands. The LF has to give up its old ideas, otherwise the current situation will continue. mcduck : but mr diwanji elections r wonby giving arrack sachets toilliterate people an inciting castsentiments A K Diwanji : Arrack sachets can be given by both sides, so that works both ways. Yes, caste sentiments are incited, especially nowadays, but at least major parties often put up people from the same (majority) caste in a particular constituency. But that is not the only sentiment at work. sun : In Kerala LDF has done a lot of violence. They have done a lot of partiality to LDF people. Even in police stattion an LDF supporter got well treatement. LDF's violence only defined its fate. A K Diwanji : That may be one reason why they were voted out. bhutu : Is is there any scope to overthrow LF near future by centre intervention..is there any possibilities of rigging that bengal govt did in polling A K Diwanji : I don't think any government at the Centre will today overthrow a state government, unless gravely provoked. So that option is out. Rigging is never completely ruled out, but that can never alone ensure victory or defeat. At best you can rig one or two seats, especially with the Election Commission so alert these days sun : Why political scenario in Kerala alter after every election? A K Diwanji : No definite answer. Why do the people in Bengal vote for the LF election after elections??? mcduck : diwanji in a democratic countrywhy should we have unions.has any union fostered discipline ? it has only managed to organize strikesand stall the development A K Diwanji : We need unions, otherwise working conditions would be akin to what exist in China: abysmal. But unions who dictate business and government policies do more harm than good; and that is what is happening in West Bengal and in our public sector enterprises. santosh : can jayallaitha become the chief minister A K Diwanji : The billion rupee question. This will be the big issue in the days to come. A K Diwanji : Guys, I need to take a break. Enjoy chatting among yourselves, and please avoid nasty language and abuses. I'll be back later. |
